Will Xi eventually succeed Hu? – New Perspective Based on Latest China Political Development (Part 2 of 3)

The second school of thought is the fact that Xi was not appointed the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission at the Fourth Plenum of the 17th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. This came as a big surprise to many. Observers like Cheng Li, a political analyst at the Brookings Institution in Washington, felt that this could be the start of a phase where China will spread out the power of the top leader into various hands, unlike the past where top leaders must hold on to leadership to the party, nation and military.

However, this is unlikely as Deng Xiaoping, in a speech entitled “The Top Priority of the Third Collective Leadership”, elaborated on the importance of power consolidation on one core personality as the top leader. Jiang Zemin was the first beneficiary of this policy and Hu was the second. The previous time two leaders shared the party, country and military power, the disastrous Tiananmen incident of 1989 took place. No matter how much infighting is taking place in China amongst the different factions, no one party would desire such political instability. As such, with political stability as the top concern of the leaders, it is unlikely that, be it Hu or the retired elders who still have voting rights to select top leadership candidates, China would see a situation where the leadership of the party, country and military fall in different hands.

Wong Teck Yenn